Thursday, September 23, 2010

Who will win - It's pace versus consistency

With just five races to go, and five drivers still in with a fight to win, let us analyse who stands the better chance.

It no longer depends on who has the best car, as all the three teams are bringing upgrades at every race.

Pace wise, Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel are quicker than Button and Webber.

However, pace alone will not be the factor at this crunch moment, as smart thinking, consistency and control would be the deciding factor.

Here is a graph showing the performance level of each driver so far:



From the above, if we take out the Webber's one and Button's two races where they didn't finish due to external factors affecting and no fault of theirs, they show the best consistency level.

While others have been showing lack of temperament at crucial moments in races that has led them in to committing vital erorrs in judgement.

Fernando Alonso has surprisingly made more mistakes this season than he might have collectively done in the last two seasons.

Determined to win the championship in his maiden year at Ferrari, he tried a little too much out of anxiety which led to mistakes and crucial juncture viz., crashing in Monaco practice, that made his miss the qualifying and forced him to start from the pitlane, then again losing control at Belgium GP, being the few most notable of the lot.

Sebastian Vettel was surprised by the form of his veteran team-mate this season, whom he comfortably beat last year. While he lost points, Webber calmly collected them, and surged ahead.

This unsettled the young driver, forcing him to take undue chances in races leading to mistakes, though he has faster at qualifying.

Returning from a leg injury last season, Mark Webber was outpaced by Vettel, but this season, the fully-fit Aussie has shown the youngster that pace alone cannot be the determining factor.

Coming to Lewis Hamilton, many F1 pundits believed that Lewis would beat Jenson hands down, but the 2009 champion has proved them wrong.

He made brilliant strategic decision in times of crisis viz., the tyre choice at Australia, the F-duct set-up choice at Monza etc., thus showing that his smart thinking makes up for his lack of pace.

As the season progressed, with pressure mounting, Hamilton showed cracks in his driving temperament, when he over-drove his car at Hungary and an unnecessary overtaking bid at Monza on Felipe Massa that took him out of these races.

The fight now being so close with every point crucial, there is every chance that the likes of Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel might yet again succumb to pressure making crucial errors.

Mark Webber and Jenson Button meanwhile made sure to cruise along collecting points at races where they were disadvantaged, while racing aggressive at tracks that suited, thus making most of it.

Hence, the mental composure and consistency levels of these two guys will make them gain the maximum at this very important juncture of the championship.

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